If the Academy reliably picked the best films of the year, the award telecasts would become unwatchably dull. It’s only Oscar’s habit of occasionally recognizing greatness but more often rewarding middlebrow uplift or outright gunk that gives it any suspense at all. What shocking aesthetic injustices will it endorse tonight?

This year is weird because all of the major contenders for Best Picture — The Aviator, Million Dollar Baby and the dark horse Sideways — are all in different ways too dark for a standard Oscar slate.

It could go either way, but my sense is that Martin Scorsese will cement his status as the Susan Lucci of the Oscars. Folks either love or hate Million Dollar Baby, but only kinda like The Aviator. In a five-way race, the fervor of the Clintites will trump the guilty sense of atonement driving the Scorsesians. Scorsese’s Catch-22 is that his best films really are too tough for the Academy, but his less searing films lack the full gut-punch of his genius. Tonight may prove me wrong, but I suspect he will only be able to win a non-honorary Oscar by completing a new flick and then coming down with a life-threatening illness.

If I were betting, this is what I’d have my money on:

Picture: Million Dollar Baby

Director: Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby

Actress: Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby

Actor: Jamie Foxx, Ray — actors like to vote for extremely visible acting, because they all want to overact themselves. What’s showier than a spot-on impersonation of an incredibly recognizable figure that still works as a performance — with a handicap thrown in for good measure?

Supporting Actor: Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby — love for the film, plus a career award for a beloved actor

Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, The Aviator — for the same reason as Foxx, a showy impersonation that transcends mimicry



Art Direction: The Aviator

Costumes: The Aviator

Makeup: Lemony Snicket

Animated Feature: The Incredibles

Animated Short: Ryan

Live Action Short: hell if I know

Visual Effects: I, Robot — the other two choices are sequels repeating techniques from previous entries

Documentary Short: Sister Rose’s Passion — in this category, if it’s about the Holocaust, it wins

Documentary Feature: Born Into Brothels — people have heard of it, and it’s both nobly and non-controversially political

Original Score: Passion of the Christ — frankly I have no idea; if these nominees actually represented the year, it would have been a horrible year for film music

Film Editing: The Aviator — the really important story-choice work of editing is impossible to discern, even by practitioners, so flashy cutting and/or a connection to a movie that might win the whole thing usually wins this category.

Original Song: Counting Crows vs. Andrew Lloyd Webber? My ears, my bleeding ears.

Before rock n roll, songs written for movies used to regularly become hits, even standards. That era is long since past. Please, someone, put this category out of its misery.

Foreign Language: The Sea Inside, the only movie anyone has heard of. (I’ve seen Yesterday and as a moving drama on the important social issue of AIDS in Africa, it would stand a good chance if anyone had seen it.)

Sound Editing: Spider-Man 2; voters will think it’s easier to sync sound to a cartoon

Sound Mixing: The Aviator, for moving the sound around the room during plane crash sequences

Cinematography: The Aviator, for flamboyantly recreating various eras of Technicolor

Adapted Screenplay: Million Dollar Baby, screenwriting is where bones get thrown to the quirky stuff, but it won’t be here, it’ll be….

…here: Original Screenplay: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

(Leave a comment)